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Prediction for CME (2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-04-02T13:55Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5080/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-04-05T09:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-04-05T00:00Z (-9.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2014 Apr 03 1223 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40403
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Apr 2014, 1204UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Apr 2014 until 05 Apr 2014)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2014 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2014 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Apr 2014 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 023
COMMENT: Solar activity was dominated by an M6.5 flare from NOAA AR 2027
peaking at 14:05 UT, April 2. It was associated with a filament eruption
and type II radio bursts. The corresponding full halo CME was first
visible in LASCO C2 at 13:36 UT. Measured projected speeds by CACTus vary
between 500 km/s and over 1500 km/s. The bulk of the mass was expelled in
north east direction. Given the location of the source region and the
direction of the ejecta the impact on earth will probably be limited. We
can expect at least the impact of the CME driven shock but also a weak
impact of the CME itself is probable. Arrival is likely to be around
midnight April 4 to 5. Solar wind speed decreased rather steadily from
just above 400 km/s to now just above 360 km/s. The total magnetic field
was stable in the 4 to 6 nT range. No signatures of the anticipated arrival
of the CMEs of March 28, 29, and 30 have been observed. Geomagnetic
conditions were at quiet levels (both local K and planetary Kp <=2) over
the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet in
the next 36 hours. Afterwards, the arrival of the April 1 and April 2 CMEs
may cause unsettled to active conditions and possibly minor storms. Also
the low latitude coronal hole that passed the central meridian late April
1, early April 2 may become geoeffective by midnight April 4 to 5.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 097, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 02 Apr 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 125
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 155
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : 005
ESTIMATED AP : 005
ESTIMATED ISN : 084, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
02 1318 1405 1428 N14E53 M6.5 2B 3700 09/2027 II/1IV/2
END

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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:Issued: 2014 Apr 02 1801 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The M6.5 flare peaking at 14:05 UT originated from NOAA AR 2017, and was associated with type II radio bursts observed by the Humain station. The corresponding CME appears as a full halo CME from the viewpoint of STEREO A spacecraft. It becomes visible in STEREO B COR2 at 13:55 UT, and in STEREO A COR2 at 13:54 UT. Unfortunately the STEREO B COR2 data suffer a data gap right after the onset. In the latest LASCO C2 data it appears at 13:36 UT and also appears to develop as a full halo CME from the Sun-Earth line viewpoint.
Arrival of the CME can be expected as early as April 3 after 15:00 UT.

Lead Time: 45.28 hour(s)
Difference: 9.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-04-03T12:23Z

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